Thursday, October 14, 2021

US #Labor Review #GDP #Stocks #Investing

Labor Review
Much of today's economic data, time series centralized collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonics to adjust outcomes of economic time series as far back as the 1980’s. As long as the public accepts the description of the economic backdrop by this data, and assumes politicians and central bankers are fully responsible for setting direction of them, the drive to massage, spin, and/or manufacture data driven outcomes remains high. Administrations as far back as the 1980’s have utilized heavily modified and revised economic data for political gain.

Experienced teaches us that data can be whatever it wants to be in the short term. Statistical techniques, i.e. tricks, are often reversed through data revisions when nobody is looking. Revisions take place when Administrations or Administration’s polices goals change.

Subscriber Comments

I'll post this again, if only to provide an illusion that we can still do critical thinking.

The economy is not going to return to normal anytime soon. Don't listen to anyone suggesting otherwise. The civilian labor force is still short 3.225 million works since the onset of COVID-19. Here's the interesting part, the number grew roughly 0.18, or 180,000 workers from August to September.

Wait until vaccine mandates take full effect. The civilian labor force will shrink even further, while we cheer the stock market to all-time highs (maybe).

U.S. Civilian Labor Force (CLF) and CLF Maximum less CLF

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