Friday, January 20, 2023

#Sentiment Review $SPX

Sentiment Review
The old American idiom, a day late and dollar short, applies to the majority's ability to time (buy or sell) US stocks. The majority, influenced by emotion, buys when they should be selling, and vice versa.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”, John Templeton

Subscriber Comments

The majority, a group notoriously bad at timing from Bitcoin to commodities, get their butts paddled most often when they believe “it's different this time”. Selling stocks, for example, when the majority is bearish, will be a favorite trading/investing strategy long after we retire, and the Matrix is deemed irrelevant and useless technology.

Human nature drives this destructive behavior. It drives us to stand with the crowd in a vain attempt to remain relevant and popular, rather than doing the right thing.

2001-2002 and 2008, bearish periods for stocks, showed bull phases in sentiment. The bull phases are defined by red boxes (see Sentiment Oscillator and Stock Prices Since 2000). Bears are describing these periods as analogs for 2022-2023. What are they missing?

Sentiment Oscillator and Stock Prices Since 2000

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