Wednesday, April 17, 2024

#Economy & #Stocks Review Wait Until Standard of Livings Really Decline

E&S Review
Much of today's economic data, time series officially collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic to adjust economic outcomes as far back as the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers use these techniques for political gain.

Data massaged by statistical techniques (tricks) are revised when nobody is looking, or Administrations or public policies change.

Subscriber Comments

The Economy & Stocks (E&S) Report, a series of videos, provide depth to today's review. The E&S Report should be mandatory for all subscribers.  2023 will be a difficult and volatile year. It leads an important transition to 2024. Investors need to be prepared for 2024.  That's when the crying starts.

The majority never gets timing right.  They're bearish when they should be bullish, and vice versa.  They also have a long history of becoming bag holders.

Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” — Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

Mackay reminds us that the majority, the collective conscious of all investors, to be swayed by the emotions and behaviors of the crowd. The majority, a group that struggles with timing, find themselves being bearish when they should have been bullish, and vice versa. This traps them as bag holders when trends against the majority's expectations. The stock market often defies expectations, rising when everyone expects a recession, and vice versa. This is why we follow the invisible hand rather than opinions.

Wait Until Standard of Livings Really Decline

Generation Z doesn't know it has it so good. The Economist, the ONCE respected publication, reminds them how good they have it. 😂

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The young adults writing these articles lack an understanding of history and the invisible hand. The lack of knowledge will cultivate the next generation of bag holders that will be crushed when the empire shifts.

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If Generation Z, Y, X, and/or Boomers are better off now than previous American generations, wait until the 2030s when the standard of living adjustment becomes undeniable. Undeniable will make the 2020s inflation, the stuff of TikTok car rants in 2024, child's play in comparison. Let's talk about that for all subscribers.

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