Monday, April 1, 2024

In the #News #Politics #Economy

“If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.”

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform (or pause and reflect).”

― Mark Twain

Subscriber Comments

Economic cycles are not light switches

The majority that assumed the Fed would cut rates, sending the dollar and commodities sharply lower and higher, were surprised by the unexpected strength from the March ISM Report (see ISM News).

The economy follows cycles. The minority, a group looking to better understand trends, needs to understand the cycles. We have discussed primary and secondary economic cycles numerous times in the Economy & Stocks and US Bond Reports.

Economic transitions are not light switches. We need to track marginal economic activity through the Economic Activity Composite (see EAC) to better understand momentum. Momentum can maintain trends against the primary and secondary cycles for months. Watch the US Bond Report discussion about confirmation from the yield curve. Cycles need confirmation.

Click to ISM News to Read

Economic Activity Composite

Follow me on 𝕏 or Facebook for further discussion.


The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.