#Economy & #Stocks Review

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, time series officially collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic to adjust economic outcomes as far back as the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers use these techniques for political gain.

Data massaged by statistical techniques (tricks) are revised when nobody is looking, or Administrations or public policies change.

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Black Friday spending in U.S. retail stores was muted this year, contrasting with a more robust rise online (see News). Bargain-hungry Americans opted for their phones and laptops over physical stores, according to data from Mastercard and other providers. Sales at brick-and-mortar stores grew just 0.7% year-over-year.

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A closer examination of retail sales suggests that the US consumer and economy are in trouble. Retail sales are not keeping up with inflation, indicating a contraction. That's a significant issue for a consumption-driven economy. Please watch 12/01/24 Report - Retail Sales (Spending) and Economy In Trouble for a more in-depth discussion of the trends and the growing cracks in the economic facade.

Real Retail Sales

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