#Economy & #Stocks Review Trump and Hoover In the Wrong Place At The Wrong Time

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Trump and Hoover In the Wrong Place At The Wrong Time

Beliefs are irrelevant; the invisible hand will dispel delusions with brute force. Our task is to follow the invisible hand, not opinions.

Herbert Hoover, the 31st President from 1929 to 1933, found himself in the wrong position at the wrong time. In 1929, the public yield curve inversion was significant, lasting 23 months and reaching 145 basis points in May of that year. This was the longest inversion until 2022, when it spanned 25 months and peaked at 157 basis points in 2023. If this doesn't catch your attention, you're not following the US Bond Report*.

Hoover inherited a volatile situation after the 1928 election. The public, much like today, was unaware of the developing risks and remained unconcerned when the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was introduced in 1930. "America first!" everyone nervously proclaimed. Those dismissing the similarities today are likely sitting on the sidelines (cash) while risk-on assets are in play.

For a more in-depth discussion on what the invisible hand describes as an unfolding train wreck in the global economy, tune into the US Bond Report. Like Hoover, Trump finds himself in the wrong place at the wrong time in 2025.

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*You should be concerned. 01/23/24 Report - Bull Trap of 2025 discusses how a generation of Americans could be wiped out.

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