#Economy & #Stocks Review - Idiocy of The Tariff Cycle

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Idiocy of The Tariff Cycle

President Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars and certain foreign-sourced automobile parts. This move, set to take effect on April 3, is aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing and addressing trade imbalances. However, it has sparked backlash from key trading partners like Canada, Japan, and the European Union, who have raised concerns about its potential impact on global trade and consumer prices

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The tariff cycle drags on, achieving little more than a sense of déjà vu. Corporate leaders—and soon the public—are waking up to the reality of an inevitable recession in 2025. For Insight subscribers who’ve joined the forward-thinking minority, today’s review serves as a reminder to prepare.

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