Wednesday, April 9, 2025

#Economy & #Stocks Review - Tariffs, The PR Nightmare

E&S Review
Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Tariffs, The PR Nightmare

As of April 9, 2025, the U.S.–China trade war has escalated significantly. The United States imposed a 104% tariff on all Chinese imports, effective immediately. This decision follows China's earlier imposition of a 34% tariff on American goods. In response, China announced an increase in tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%, up from the previously stated 34%, effective April 10, 2025. The escalation has led to significant volatility in global financial markets, with major indices experiencing sharp declines amid fears of a prolonged trade conflict. Negotiations will be difficult as both sides are standing firm. The U.S. is demanding the withdrawal of Chinese tariffs and China vowing to “fight till the end.”

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