Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.
Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.
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Redefining Trade: The New Monroe Doctrine
The Soybeans Review article, “
Soybeans Caught in a Modernized Version of the Monroe Doctrine,” was the first to highlight the political cat-and-mouse game unfolding between the U.S. and China. This reimagined doctrine won’t just impact farmers. It will ripple across the entire economy and effect all consumers. While the
majority will be slow to grasp its full implications, they will inevitably feel the consequences as global trade contracts, the economy slows, and inflation stays stubbornly elevated.
Our role isn’t to regurgitate the same simplified narratives that comfort the majority. It’s to anticipate and understand trends before they become obvious. Doing so demands a grasp of the invisible hand at work—and a commitment to critical thinking.
The President recently communicated the following:
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