#Economy & #Stocks Review - Social Media Sells Bad Theories To The Public Without Proper Push Back

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Social Media Sells Bad Theories To The Public Without Proper Push Back

#Markets don’t crash in November or December for 79 years.

The US stock market (using the S&P 500 as a proxy) has experienced declines of 10% or more in November on multiple occasions. Examples include:

• 1973: -11.39%
• 1929: -11.78%
• 1931: -17.66%
• 1940: -13.34%
• 1946: -14.42%


Yes, it has also experienced declines of 10% or more in December on multiple occasions. Examples include:

• 1931: -14.53%
• 1930: -15.51%
• 1937: -11.02%
• 1946: -15.13%


These figures are based on month-end closing prices. Such large single-month drops are rare, especially in these seasonally stronger months, and often occurred during major economic crises like the Great Depression or oil shocks.

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Thanks for doing this research https://t.co/6VECdEDlbg

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 7, 2025

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The discipline of social media influencers, recently discussed in our update to the E&S Report, is often characterized as a “coin-flip” strategy. That is, roughly 50/50 odds of being correct. The reason is simple: influencers frequently cherry-pick data to reinforce their preferred narratives.

Today's theory is that November and December seasonal bullish tendencies can be smashed by sharp, unexpected declines.

A quick glance at the data from that social media post shows that almost every "unexpected" decline occurred amid primary downtrends. The lone exception was November 1929 which registered a primary uptrend of just 1.8%. Rule #1 in the Evolution of the Trade, which we repeat regularly, never fight the primary trend. Markets didn't drop due to seasonality, the primary trend was DOWN. Today, the S&P 500's primary trend is up and LTCO equals 54.9%. Influencers selling the idea of a November/December crash to a gullible public. It's still a low-probability bet in 2025.

November:

• 1973: -11.39% - Primary Trend DOWN
• 1929: -11.78% - Primary Trend UP, LTCO = 1.8%
• 1931: -17.66% - Primary Trend DOWN
• 1940: -13.34% - Primary Trend DOWN
• 1946: -14.42% - Primary Trend DOWN
December:

• 1931: -14.53% - Primary Trend DOWN
• 1930: -15.51% - Primary Trend DOWN
• 1937: -11.02% - Primary Trend DOWN
• 1946: -15.13% - Primary Trend DOWN


Today • 2025: ????? - Primary Trend UP, LTCO = 54.9%


Seasonality For S&P 500

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