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― Mark Twain
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Ray Dalio Insights
In the recent interview on The Tucker Carlson Show, Ray Dalio discussed several pressing issues facing the United States. He described the current state of the country as a “type of civil war,” characterized by irreconcilable differences and conflicts over wealth and values. Dalio emphasized that these conflicts are often resolved through force rather than compromise. He also touched on the challenges posed by the debt crisis and the race to beat China in technology, economics, and academia.
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Ray Dalio on AI, the debt crisis and what actually makes people happy.
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) February 21, 2025
(0:00) The Hidden Civil War Happening in the US
(5:00) What Caused This Mass Polarization?
(8:03) Will the Advancement of Tech Destroy Us?
(15:44) Ray Dalio’s Predictions About AI
(19:09) AI’s Impact on… pic.twitter.com/BX0jCRQKK8
Important Read
Dalio believes, and I agree, that the US is already experiencing a new kind of Civil War, one with words and without guns, at least for now. Whether it's the Internet, social media, or poor leadership, Dalio highlights the growing “irreconcilable differences that each side is willing to fight for.” Humans seem unable to cooperate, regardless of how many COEXIST bumper stickers are placed on Subaru at the Starbucks drive thru. Both sides, displaying the same amount of tolerance and patience as grade school kids waiting for recess after a stern lecture from the principal, will push their socialist or capitalistic agendas until one wins. Compromise erodes further with every visceral “tweet” about how the world should be and markets should be acting. The polarization is the most severe since 1900, marked by the lowest level of cross-party cooperation in history.
Dalio also reveals, a shocking statistic, that 60% of Americans have below a 6th grade reading level. The idea that 3 million people (out of 330+ million) drive innovation and culture staggers the mind. He also suggests that the education gap is creating an unprecedented wealth divide. It's baffling that younger generations are being discouraged to engage in higher education, in a world increasing defined by complicated technology, rules, and AI.
Dalio believes AI is revolutionizing economic policy, the military, social systems, healthcare, and more. This viewpoint overemphasizes administrative tasks as the trigger for innovation. Dalio is mistaken here. Emotional intelligence, which will forever elude AI, means it will never be able to read a room full of humans. This is a vital skill in economic policy, and it's the reason AI using the PREV Matrix can only be used as a tool, not a replacement to the mind. I bet I could beat AI using the PREV Matrix with ease. AI does not understand humans and cannot anticipate fear, greed, anxiety, pain, and numerous other emotions that alter our judgment at the moment. It will never understand why confidence suddenly fails, making it as clueless as PhD traders following failed economic theories.
Dalio CORRECTLY points out that the US will never catch up to China in manufacturing “in our lifetimes.” I would add it will not catch up before the core economy for many generations. President Trump's economic policy of bring manufacturing home is tripe feed to fools. China controls 33% of global manufacturing. This is more than US, Europe, and Japan combined. China dominates nearly everything. It's a global leader in robotics, chip production, AI application and integration, while the US dominates in selling meme and scat coins through YouTube influencers.
Dalio is also worried that the US, a fat and bloated empire, will eventually lose its edge in innovation and higher education. Innovation is no longer coming solely from US citizens, with half of our top innovators being foreigners attending our universities, which are slowly squeezing out US citizens for profit. Dalio is convinced that AI will become the world's primary innovator, eventually crushing universities. While I view universities as a money bubble, it's highly unlikely they'll disappear due to AI. The risk is that universities will shift out of the United States.
Furthermore, Dalio believes AI will achieve some sort of Skynet awareness, which is highly unlikely. His version of Skynet points toward either totalitarian control or anarchy, an interesting dichotomy. A couple of conversations with AI in terms of trading reveal its overall cluelessness, yet we're supposed to rally around it for life choices? Dalio thinks so, or at least thinks it's a risk.
Dalio's solution is communal. I'll put it another way, without the sugar-coating. Everyone needs to get their heads out of their asses, log off their f-ing phones and social media for five minutes, and start building communal friendships, and relationships that make it impossible to stomp on each other when the periphery, and eventually core currencies collapse. Dalio suggests that power, wealth, greed, and the role model of corruption lead to zero happiness beyond the basic needs of living. A country can have an extremely high GDP, yet produce unhappy citizens.
It would be wise for people to stop arguing over the politics of a failing republic and rebuild strong communal and familial bonds before it's too late.
Follow me on 𝕏 or Facebook for further discussion.
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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.
