#Economy & #Stocks Review - Extremely Risky Trade War

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Extremely Risky Trade War

On October 11, 2025, President Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports effective November 1, intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions. He criticized China’s “extraordinarily aggressive” trade policies and new export controls as a “moral disgrace,” warning that the tariff timeline could be accelerated and export restrictions on critical software access for China would also begin November 1. Previously, Trump threatened steep tariff increases and suggested canceling a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China’s recent moves, including export restrictions on rare earth minerals, new port fees on U.S. ships, an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm, and a suspension of U.S. soybean purchases, led to a U.S. market decline. Existing tariffs, some reaching 145%, are paused until November 10 as trade negotiations continue.

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