#Economy & #Stocks Review - Economic Deterioration Hides Behind Government Shutdown

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Economic Deterioration Hides Behind Government Shutdown

Layoff announcements surged in October as companies adjusted staffing amid the AI boom, signaling possible trouble for the labor market, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Firms announced 153,074 job cuts, up 183% from September and 175% from a year ago, marking the worst October since 2003 and the worst year for layoffs since 2009.

The technology sector led with 33,281 cuts, nearly six times September’s total, as companies restructured for AI integration. Overall, 1.1 million layoffs have been announced in 2025, 65% higher than last year. While ADP reported modest job growth of 42,000 in October, signs of a softening labor market have prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice since September, with another reduction expected in December.

Experts say industries are still adjusting after pandemic-era hiring surges, with AI adoption, weaker spending, and rising costs driving layoffs. Those losing jobs now are also facing increasing difficulty finding new positions.

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