#Economy & #Stocks Review - The Fed, Labor Market, and What Can and Cannot Be Said

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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The Fed, Labor Market, and What Can and Cannot Be Said

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for another interest rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, citing growing concerns about a weakening labor market and slowing hiring. His stance aligns him with policymakers favoring further easing, even as some regional Fed presidents warn that more cuts could reignite inflation. Waller said he is not worried about inflation rising and believes recent data support another quarter-point reduction. While other officials, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Boston Fed President Susan Collins, struck more cautious tones, Waller argued that restrictive policy is hurting consumers and that a December cut would help manage risks. He also dismissed concerns that the recent government data blackout left the Fed without sufficient economic information.

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