#Economy & #Stocks Review - Timing A Correction/Crash Model

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Timing A Correction/Crash Model

The Buffett Indicator, or Market Cap to GDP ratio, is a long-term measure of stock market valuation popularized by Warren Buffett, who in a 2001 Fortune interview called it “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand.” It is calculated by dividing the total market value of all publicly traded stocks in a country by its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This ratio compares the size of the stock market to the overall economy, offering insight into whether the market may be over- or undervalued. In the U.S., the indicator is often represented by the Wilshire 5000 Index divided by the nation’s GDP, providing a snapshot of how market valuations align with economic output.

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Stock valuations appear elevated across traditional metrics, which often show significant inconsistencies when identifying market tops and bottoms. Our system utilizes the Timing A Correction/Crash (TAC) Model, incorporating the Dividend Yield Oscillator and market cycle analysis to improve accuracy. Further details are regularly discussed in the Economy and Stocks Report for report subscribers.

Dividend yield cycles C1 and C2 are not in a position consistent with a top. C1 and C2 cycles typically lead C3 and C4.

Dividend Yield Cycles DY1 and DY2

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