US #TreasuryBond Review $TLT $IEF - Hype and Overfocus On The Fed Decision

US Bonds Review

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

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Hype and Overfocus On The Fed Decision

The Federal Reserve is expected to issue a third consecutive interest rate cut, likely lowering its benchmark rate to 3.5%–3.75%, but with a hawkish tone signaling that further cuts may pause. The Federal Open Market Committee is divided between members focused on supporting a softening labor market and those worried that more easing could worsen above-target inflation.

Officials are likely to emphasize that policy is now near an appropriate level, with updated projections (“dot plot”) and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks expected to reflect higher caution and possible dissent within the committee. Economic data shows slowing hiring, rising layoffs, and inflation stuck near 2.8%, keeping pressure on policymakers. Despite concerns, many analysts still expect one more cut, while the Fed may also adjust its balance-sheet strategy, potentially shifting from ending bond-roll off to modest bond purchases.

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The financial world, including social media, will make themselves feel important by over talking about Fed policy today. We will add the only comment that matters, the invisible hand doesn't care. Yesterday's US Bond Report update, The 12/09/25 Report - The Fed Can't Control A Crisis Anymore, explains why today's overfocus is a waste of time. Yes, we know, we're fun, but given the choice to over talking 25 bp as if it matters to American consumers and businesses is a waste of time.

The Fed’s rate cuts, something markets expect, aren’t about stimulating growth. They’re about preventing a fragile economy from deteriorating further. Containing that weakness is no longer an option for major peripheral economies like Europe, the UK, Japan, and others. Keeping rates high while inflation falls represents tightening that many believe will stimulate the real economy as the fed funds rate drops. Thank God for the deluded majority still believes that Keynesian economics will save us! Oh, by the way, silver is rallying as inflation in falling. We talk about that a lot in the Gold & Silver Report.

Behind today’s chatter and expert interpretations, the labor market continues to deteriorate. Hiring and quits are slowing, and young-worker unemployment is rising, even if the official statistics—yet to catch up—don’t show it. Don’t worry, the American consumer will save us! Ignore the fact that defaults and delinquencies are rising fast and lenders are pulling back.

Bottom line: nothing to see here. And, oh, by the way, Europe will never accept peace with Russia. Are you starting to understand why?

Inflation Oscillator

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