US #TreasuryBond Review $TLT $IEF - Growing Repro Crisis

US Bonds Review

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.

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Growing Repro Crisis

U.S. short-term funding markets experienced typical year-end strain, with repo rates rising as banks reduced lending to manage balance sheets. However, liquidity pressures were milder than expected due to the Federal Reserve’s renewed purchases of short-term Treasury bills and heavy use of its Standing Repo Facility. Repo rates, measured by SOFR, briefly climbed to a two-week high but eased quickly, and no major market dislocations emerged. Record borrowing from the Fed’s repo facility signaled that its backstop tools were working as intended, helping keep cash flowing and containing funding stress.

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Social media is populated with a narrative that the rally in silver is causing a repo crisis that will bring down major banks.

Someone should tell the financial services ETF ($XLF) tracked in the Matrix.

The composite trend, while PDT1, is triple up and only MID cycle. In other words, the silver bugs selling the idea that the repro crisis is related to silver would be wise to look at the invisible hand for confirmation. We will be talking further about the financial stocks in future US Bond Report updates.

Yes, Federal Reserve injections through the repro market is a concern. The computer sees it, and is adjusting the TAC Model accordingly. We talk about the TAC Model in the latest update to the Economy & Stock Report. Judging by today's response in the stock market, our loose “interpretation”, something we never care about at the end of the trade, is proving correct.

Why are repo injections rising then. The global economy is weakening, and the financial system that supports it needs help. Sorry to say, this is just the early stages of help that will get much worse as we approach the next decade.

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