Thursday, October 23, 2025

#Economy & #Stocks Review - New Monroe Doctrine Using Neocon Playbook

E&S Review
Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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New Monroe Doctrine Using Neocon Playbook

The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Russia's largest oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil, citing Moscow's lack of commitment to ending the Ukraine war, aiming to degrade Kremlin war funding. Effective Nov. 21, the measures disrupt nearly half of Russia's 4M bpd crude exports to key Asian buyers—China (2M bpd) and India (1.6M bpd) without immediate market chaos.

Indian refiners (Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, HPCL, Reliance, ONGC) are scrutinizing and likely halting seaborne deals, while China's pipeline flows may persist, but state firms will avoid sanctioned cargoes. Experts predict a short-term export hiatus, forcing buyers to OPEC/U.S. supplies, raising prices; Brent surged 3.7% to $64.91/bbl.

Unlike the G7's $60 price cap, this is a blanket ban. Analysts warn of escalation but note risks of reversal via U.S.-Russia diplomacy.

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