#Economy & #Stocks Review - Job Market Trends

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Job Market Trends

US job growth remained sluggish at the end of the year, with businesses posting fewer openings and hiring slowing further. Job openings fell to 7.15 million in November, the lowest in over a year, while new hires dropped to 5.12 million, their lowest since June 2024. Most industries saw declines, except for modest gains in information, construction, and federal government jobs. The hiring rate fell to 3.2%, near a decade-low outside the pandemic.

Layoffs eased and quits rose slightly, signaling some worker confidence, but overall turnover remained slow. Economists expect December to add about 55,000 jobs, reflecting a sluggish year affected by policy uncertainty and immigration shifts. Private-sector hiring rebounded in December, with gains driven by health care, education, and leisure and hospitality. Analysts describe the labor market as “low-hire, low-fire” and increasingly uneven.

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.