#Economy & #Stocks Review - Resilient Consumer Narrative

E&S Review

Much of today's economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Resilient Consumer Narrative

U.S. retail and restaurant sales were flat in October as consumers reined in spending after a strong summer, amid concerns about high prices and broader economic uncertainty. Excluding auto-related sales, spending rose modestly, but overall data suggest households pulled back as costs for essentials remained elevated. While some categories such as clothing, furniture, online retail, and department stores saw gains, restaurant sales declined, signaling weaker discretionary spending. At the same time, a softening labor market—with higher unemployment and uneven job growth—has added pressure on consumers. Despite these headwinds, the holiday shopping season began on a solid note, though spending remains uneven, with higher-income households driving most of the growth while lower-income consumers continue to struggle.

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