Housing Review $ITB #HomeBuilders - Everything Is Not Fine

Housing Review

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

The US Home Construction's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.

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Everything Is Not Fine

Follow the money.

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86% of Real Estate Agents sold less than 5 homes last year.

71% sold ZERO.

Official unemployment data doesn’t include “under-employment” or reduced income—both are happening now—and both matter very much to the health of our economy pic.twitter.com/u96PmDhojA

— Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) February 19, 2026

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Weakening demand in the housing market is not a surprise.

Based on MLS resale data through November 2025, the chart shows that 71% of the 1.3 million members of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) recorded no home sales, and 86% closed fewer than five transactions. However, housing analyst Mike Simonsen notes that the data does not capture leases, commercial transactions, pre-construction sales, or professionals working in roles such as appraisers or team support. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors’ own 2025 survey found that active Realtors averaged 10 transactions for the year.

The figures reflect a challenging housing market marked by limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates earlier in the year, which dampened overall sales activity. They also highlight an ongoing post-pandemic industry consolidation, with membership declining from prior peaks and a greater share of transactions concentrated among top-producing agents.

Our Housing Oscillator, which turned positive mostly from the US Home Construction Index "rally" since the government shutdown, remains relatively weak and only slightly above the zero line. Building permits, housing starts, and supply remain relatively weak. The oscillator could easily fall below the zero line as the economy weakens in 2026. We talk about this more in the Housing and Economy & Stocks Reports. The Housing oscillator typically falls below zero during an economic contraction.

Politicians, however, insist everything is fine.

Housing Oscillator

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.